TMTPOST -- The artificial intelligence boom has drawn repeated comparisons to the dot-com era of the late 1990s, with both OpenAI chairman Bret Taylor and CEO Sam Altman acknowledging that the current surge in AI carries both extraordinary opportunity and significant risk.
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Speaking on the 「ACQ2」 podcast on Tuesday, Taylor noted that the dot-com boom is often remembered primarily for the spectacular failures that followed the market』s collapse. 「If you say dot-com, people immediately think of failures,」 he said. 「But if you examine the S&P 500 today and look at the value created by companies that emerged from that period, one could argue that much of the excitement and hype was justified.」
During the late 1990s, stock markets soared on the back of internet-first companies, only for the bubble to burst and send firms such as Pets.com, Webvan, and eToys.com into bankruptcy. Yet, that same era also produced tech giants that continue to shape the economy today, including Amazon, eBay, and Google. Taylor emphasized the lasting structural impact: 「It fundamentally changed commerce, finance, and essentially every aspect of how technology interacts with the broader economy.」
The AI boom is showing remarkably similar patterns. Venture capitalists are pouring billions into AI startups, while major tech companies are committing tens of billions more to AI infrastructure, talent acquisition, and research and development. Nvidia, for instance, became the first company to reach a $4 trillion market capitalization, fueled largely by demand from AI applications. Morgan Stanley has projected that AI-driven productivity gains could contribute up to $16 trillion to the S&P 500.
Yet, not all observers are convinced that the AI boom is purely positive. Skeptics warn that the frenzy mirrors the speculative excesses of the dot-com era. Tech analyst Erik Gordon told Business Insider that 「more investors may suffer than did during the dot-com crash, and their losses could be even more painful.」 Altman himself has described AI as a bubble while offering a nuanced perspective: 「When bubbles occur, smart people get excited about a kernel of truth. Are investors overexcited about AI as a whole? My opinion is yes. Is AI one of the most important technological shifts in decades? My opinion is also yes.」
Altman also cautioned that some AI startups—often consisting of just a handful of people with an idea—have received massive investments. 「Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money. We don』t know who, but a lot of people are going to make a phenomenal amount of money. My personal belief, although I may be wrong, is that overall, this will be a net positive for the economy.」
Taylor shared a similarly optimistic perspective while acknowledging the hype and 「snake oil」 surrounding AI. He highlighted the extraordinary growth of ChatGPT, which reached 100 million users just two months after its launch, as well as the rise of AI software companies serving business markets, such as Lovable, a platform for creating apps and websites. 「There』s very real value being created here,」 he said.
Altman addressed the rollout of OpenAI』s GPT-5, admitting that the launch had been rushed. The new model replaced GPT-4o entirely, prompting some backlash from users who preferred the previous model』s conversational style. OpenAI responded by restoring GPT-4o access for premium users.
ChatGPT』s popularity continues to surge. Altman reported that the platform now has 700 million weekly users, ranking it as the fifth most visited website globally, with projections to surpass Instagram and Facebook soon. However, server capacity has struggled to keep pace with demand, delaying the release of more advanced models. OpenAI plans to invest $1 trillion in data centers in the 「not very distant future」 to meet growing demand.
While OpenAI focuses on practical and responsible applications, Altman took a pointed jab at competitors such as Elon Musk』s Grok, which has released more risqué AI companions. He emphasized that OpenAI aims to develop useful tools without exploiting vulnerable users.
AI investment is reaching unprecedented levels. Renaissance Macro Research reported that AI-related capital expenditures in the U.S. over the past two quarters have contributed more to GDP than all consumer spending—a first in recorded history. Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft alone are projected to spend $364 billion on AI in 2025, further stimulating the economy.
Nevertheless, analysts warn that the AI boom carries potential risks. With global trade affected by tariffs, software and AI companies are increasingly seen as safe havens. Yet a correction in the AI market could have broad ripple effects across the global economy.
Looking ahead, Altman revealed that OpenAI is exploring a brain-computer interface to compete with Neuralink and plans additional applications beyond ChatGPT. The company is also reportedly interested in acquiring Chrome should regulators force Google to divest the popular browser.
The AI boom—like the dot-com era before it—will likely produce both spectacular failures and transformative successes. As Taylor and Altman emphasize, while some ventures may falter, many have the potential to leave lasting, fundamental impacts on the economy and society.
